“We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question which divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct. My own feeling is that it is not crazy enough.”
― Niels Bohr
Click on any chart to engorge it
Click on any chart to engorge it
Are Treasury Yields Leading the Way Down?
Money is flowing towards safety. It's moving towards income-oriented
investments. I want to see money flow into areas where investors seek
capital appreciation. That's not apparent right now, however, as
treasuries, healthcare and utilities are all attracting much more than
their fair share of investment dollars.
While the S&P 500
gained 4.3% in February, the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) didn't budge
higher. Put another way, a true equity market rally should see a
selloff in treasuries (and higher yields), but it didn't happen. In
fact, the yield is significantly lower now than it was to start the
year, despite a rise in the S&P 500. Investors are keeping their
umbrellas out. They're not trusting this rally.